In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has opened a fifteen percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton attracting 52% of the vote while Obama earns 37%.

In late February, before Clinton's comeback victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, the former First Lady's lead in the Keystone State was just four percentage points. The big difference between that poll and the current result is found a among men. Clinton now leads by seventeen percentage points among women and eleven among men. In the previous survey, she was ahead by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men.

....It is possible that when the primaries come to an end, Obama will have won the most pledged delegates while Clinton will have won the popular vote. That is especially true if she wins by a significant margin in Pennsylvania

......" It is possible that the Clinton commercial about a 3:00 a.m. phone call at the White House has helped in Pennsylvania (see the commercial). Most Likely Democratic Primary voters have either seen the ad or have heard about it. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters say that if such a call came, they'd want Clinton in the White House to answer it. Thirty percent (30%) would rather see Obama while 15% of these Democratic voters would prefer the Republican nominee, John McCain, to answer the call. Among men, 23% prefer McCain."

Those who think that Mccain would not draw in democrats especially blue collar folks in big industrial states based on an appeal on national security and patriotism should be worried about the 15% of democrats who want him to answer the phone.

Pennsylvania would be a battle ground state with Obama or Clinton on the ticket . National security and foreign policy would be one of the most important issues in the general election.

Despite the fact that the democrats in their primaries largely refuse to talk about national security with Mccain at the top of the ticket there would be no escaping it in the general.

If Obama is the nominee he has to be confident enough to fight on the national security front and not complain that the 3 am ad is fearmongering.

Some of us want to hear more about national security and how Obama intends to fight terrorism , win the battles in afganistan and iraq.

Harking back to I spoke out against the war would not be enough.

Both Clinton and Obama should come up with a better answer to this question

- Is the surge working ?

That is the basis on which the iraq war debate would be fought in the fall with Mccain on the ticket.

The answer they both give falls right into the hands of Mccain.

Democrats have dropped the ball on Iraq due to the inability of party leaders in and outside congress to come out with a consistent position on iraq and giving in to the president on iraq by the democratic congress has really put the iraq war as a toss up in the general election.

Going into Pennslyvania , National security and the economy would be key issues because of these same blue collar voters , Reagan democrats and older voters.

Negative campaigning would not work a whole lot there

PA

Clinton 52

Obama   37

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylva nia_democratic_presidential_primary

P.S. - What happens if Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and Clinton is leading in popular votes at the end of the process.

Dean is urging a do over in FL , MI and it is possible she would come out of this process with a lead in popular votes.

" Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean urged Florida and Michigan party officials to come up with plans to repeat their presidential nominating contests so that their delegates can be counted."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080306/ap_o n_el_pr/primary_scramble