MyDD :: Survey Usa CA Poll update

Survey Usa CA Poll update

by lori, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:31:43 AM EST

FINAL CA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY -- INCLUDES INTERVIEWS FROM MONDAY NIGHT 02/04/08

Clinton Appears to Blunt Late Obama Charge in California: 24 hours till votes are counted in the California Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend-off a late charge from Barack Obama, 52% Clinton, 42% Obama, according to SurveyUSA's 13th and final pre-primary tracking poll. Obama leads among men. Clinton leads among women. 44-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads among whites. Obama leads among blacks. 53-point Race Gap. Among younger voters, Clinton leads by 3. Among older voters, Clinton leads by 18. In greater San Francisco, the contest is tied. In the Central Valley, Clinton leads by 7. In greater Los Angeles, Clinton leads by 15. In the Inland Empire, Clinton leads by 16.

Filtering: 2,000 state of CA adults were interviewed 02/03/08 and 02/04/08. Of them, 1,762 were registered to vote. Of them, 872 had already voted or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote at the precinct on 02/05/08. Research conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Other polls in CA show Clinton with a smaller lead than SurveyUSA shows here. Two polls at this hour show Obama ahead in CA. For Obama to win in CA, he needs a larger turnout among males and African Americans than SurveyUSA's results indicate he will get.

Clinton 52

Obama 42

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=820141bb-aa0f-4e2d-b13b-44384b 69f1f4

One of these pollsters would go out of business today lol.

Like that would ever happen.

However look at the dramatic difference in the two polls.

Zogby says obama is leading among women in california and survey usa sees almost a 35 point gap , well we will see today.

I'll put my money on survey usa. I find it hard to believe that clinton is at 36 in california but stranger things have happened.

Today is the big day.

Tags: california, obama, clinton (all tags)

Permalink :: 28 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

SUSA has Clinton winning 54-37 among people who have already voted. And they only estimate this to be about 1/3 of the total electorate which, if true, would be the lowest absentee turnout in quite some time.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:35:06 AM EST

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

Assuming that only 1/3 of the electorate votes by absentee, Obama would need to beat Clinton by 8 points among voters going to the polls tomorrow in order to win CA. To win by Zogby-esque porportions, he would need to beat Clinton by about 28 points among voters tomorrow.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:40:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update/Indy Mischief? (none / 0)

My big question about the SUSA poll is: did they take into account that independents can vote in the CA Democratic primary but not permitted to vote in the Republican primary? This is a big deal since Independent Repubs may vote in the Democratic primary - aginst Hillary - for Obama.

I think this is what Zogby is counting on.

by meliou2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:28:43 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update/Indy Mischief? (none / 0)

No SUSA don't have any notion that independants can vote in the democratic primary. Why would they know that, they are after all only the most experienced state polling organization in the country.

by ottovbvs on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:51:06 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

Gee, looks like it's anybody's game tomorrow. These polls are all over the place. Just makes it more exciting, really, anything could happen. What's your call?

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:36:26 AM EST

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

clinton wins california in a close race.

i have heard commentators say sources on the obama camp said clinton would win in a close race but they would spin it as a victory because they came close.

however i think zogby would be wrong tomorrow , i just don't get the sense obama is up 14 points in california and leading among women.

The guy didn't even campaign there lol

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:43:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update and Zogby (none / 0)

Zogby's latest poll:

Obama 49
Clinton 36

Un-decided 9

SUSA has un-decided at 2 pts

The differences I believe is due to the turn-out model being used.

I would bet that Zogby's turn-out model is for a higher turn out than SUSA

However we shall see.

Also the trends are different. Zogby's tracking shows a lengthening of Clinton's lead, while SUSA SHOWS the opposite.

by BDM on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:52:29 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update and Zogby (none / 0)

My pick is Obama IN A CLOSE RACE.

So far this season Obama HAS OUT PERFORMED the final poll's while Clinton has under performed except for NH.

Also the Sunday rallies with Oprah AND Marie Shriver had a lot of press play and may have contributed to the lead shown by Zogby.

by BDM on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:56:27 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update and Zogby (none / 0)

There is no way Obama is ahead with women in California. Simply no way. That is a strong reason to dismiss the Zogby poll as a major outlier, poised to become the laugh of Super Tuesday.

by georgep on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 03:07:09 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update and Zogby (none / 0)

We'll see. Oprah/ Shravier effect?? and remember Obama wins the women vote in Iowa and South Carolina. You might have to recant this tomorrow

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 03:09:38 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update and Zogby (none / 0)

Highly doubtful. You can't count SC, the ultra-high AA vote made him look good in virtaully every sub-demo, which is obviously not the case in a more demographically diverse situation.

I think Zogby will be exposed as a charlatan tomorrow.

by georgep on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 03:31:13 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update and Zogby (none / 0)

is there anyone clueless enough to switch their vote because of nbc's maria shriver? [aka skelator]

Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!

by Seymour Glass on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:26:07 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

I'll put my money with Zogby as Survey USA own report card proved that Zogby is better( even though he poll more races, he did better than Survey USA)

I agree one person http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/ 02/04/2008-pollster-report-card-through- 020408/will look really bad tomorrow

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:52:39 AM EST

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

With so many early votes already in, it's simply not possible for polls to jump around as rapidly as some of these pollsters have.

Survey USA has consistently shown a slowly tightening race and I tend to believe they have it right. I realize everyone is in "don't jinx yourself" mode but I expect Clinton to win by no fewer than 5 points.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:53:15 AM EST

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

with the early voting in , i just can't wrap my head around the 36 # zogby has for clinton and almost 50 for obama.

however we shall see.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:55:23 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

I look forward to seeing some actual votes instead of all this game-playing and setting of expectations.

Frankly, I find it pretty funny that some people are still furiously trying to spin when it's obviously far too late to matter.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:57:45 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

yep.

voting starts in a couple of hours.

don't forget to go with your wife and cast your vote for clinton lol

early and often is the key.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 03:01:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

Lori still have that sense of humor,lol. Post your predictions in my new diary

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 03:04:04 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

My wife insists that I bring the camera and take a picture of her and our baby daughter voting for Hillary. Mind you, I'm a 4-time Clinton voter so this is old hat to me.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 03:09:19 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

Great ,

NY is looking good for Clinton .

I don't think she can push it to 60 this time around though.

Obama is formidable and he can come close to 35 in NY

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 03:13:22 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

Four times? Am I missing something? Her first senate primary?

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 04:21:27 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

Hillary has a husband, also named Clinton, who was elected to something twice.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:33:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

we agree! (none / 0)

"old hat" just about sums it up.

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 05:43:12 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

These polls are all speculative and way too theoretical for me. Suvery Usa has OBama/Clinton tied in the Bay Area, but in their last poll Obama had a 17 points lead over Clinton. I think Obama pulls off the upset in California with a 2 point win.

by Djneedle83 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:27:49 AM EST

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

That is simply not true. The 1/28 poll also had them tied. SUSA, whether right or wrong, is consistent.

Btw, the marginal shift from HRC +12 to +10 comes from a slight change in the male/female ratio (57-43 now, down from 58-42) as well as higher BO numbers among Hispanics.

Hispanics are still too highly weighted, though, so the turnout model from 2004 would give you HRC +7 rather than +10. Still comfortably above the MOE.

Either way, we will see tonight, won't we?

by Nordicus on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:48:54 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

My bad - you were referring to the first 4 Feb release. You are right, that is very odd.

by Nordicus on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:50:44 AM EST
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Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update (none / 0)

Obama will hit 40% in New York State and 70% in Illinois.

by Djneedle83 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:28:44 AM EST

Re: Survey Usa CA Poll update(for what it is worth (none / 0)

RCP Average 02/01 - 02/04 - 44.0 42.8 Obama +1.2
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/03 - 02/04 895 LV 49 36 Obama +13.0
SurveyUSA 02/03 - 02/04 872 LV 42 52 Clinton +10.0
Suffolk 02/01 - 02/03 700 LV 40 39 Obama +1.0
Rasmussen 02/02 - 02/02 798 LV 45 44 Obama +1.0
See All California Democratic Primary Polling Data
Intrade Market Prices for California Democratic Primary
Obama Clinton
Intrade Real Time Quotes (See More Data )

Obama 70 Clinton 46

by BDM on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:03:02 AM EST
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